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Corellano vs Murchante — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Corellano
Corellano
CANC
00:00
Murchante
Murchante
4/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 32Campo CD Corellano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Corellano40%
×Draw26%
Murchante34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corellano
1.40
Murchante
1.25

Corellano creates 12% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 41 away

creates per match

Corellano
1.40
Murchante
1.05

allows per match

Corellano
1.44
Murchante
1.41

finishing

Corellano+0.00on par
Murchante+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corellano ↓

Murchante →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Corellano or draw
66%
Corellano or Murchante
74%
Draw or Murchante
60%

Winning margin

Corellano wins by 2+
19%
Murchante wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Corellano 1+ goals
75%
Corellano 2+ goals
41%
Corellano 3+ goals
17%
Murchante 1+ goals
71%
Murchante 2+ goals
36%
Murchante 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Corellano (draw refunded)
55%
Murchante (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corellano at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.44 · 43 matches

Murchante away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corellano attack 1.40 + Murchante defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Murchante attack 1.05 + Corellano defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Corellano scores more
40%
level
26%
Murchante scores more
34%

Corellano at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Corellano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Corellano face Murchante (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 returns with Corellano hosting Murchante. Match starts April 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Corellano host Murchante at Campo CD Corellano.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.