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Corellano vs Huarte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Corellano
Corellano
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Huarte
Huarte
1/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 20Campo CD Corellano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Corellano38%
×Draw25%
Huarte37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corellano
1.40
Huarte
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 108 away

creates per match

Corellano
1.40
Huarte
1.33

allows per match

Corellano
1.44
Huarte
1.41

finishing

Corellano+0.00on par
Huarte+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corellano ↓

Huarte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Corellano or draw
63%
Corellano or Huarte
75%
Draw or Huarte
62%

Winning margin

Corellano wins by 2+
17%
Huarte wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Corellano 1+ goals
75%
Corellano 2+ goals
41%
Corellano 3+ goals
17%
Huarte 1+ goals
75%
Huarte 2+ goals
40%
Huarte 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Corellano (draw refunded)
50%
Huarte (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corellano at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.44 · 43 matches

Huarte away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.41 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corellano attack 1.40 + Huarte defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Huarte attack 1.33 + Corellano defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Corellano scores more
38%
level
25%
Huarte scores more
37%

Corellano at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Corellano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Corellano 1–1 Huarte

Corellano and Huarte drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on January 19, 2020.

The match was played at Campo CD Corellano in Corella.