Corellano 1–0 Cortes: Result & Stats

Corellano

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cortes

11/10/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 12Campo CD Corellano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Corellano39%

×Draw27%

Cortes34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CorellanoExpected goals in this matchCortes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.19

Corellano

1.29

Cortes

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 107 away

1.40

creates per match

0.95

1.44

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Corellano

1.40

Cortes

0.95

allows per match

Corellano

1.44

Cortes

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Corellano+0.00on par

Cortes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corellano ↓

Cortes →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Corellano or draw

66%

Corellano or Cortes

73%

Draw or Cortes

61%

Winning margin

Corellano wins by 2+

17%

Cortes wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Corellano 1+ goals

72%

Corellano 2+ goals

37%

Corellano 3+ goals

14%

Cortes 1+ goals

70%

Cortes 2+ goals

33%

Cortes 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Corellano (draw refunded)

53%

Cortes (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Corellano at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.44 · 43 matches

Cortes away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.18 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Corellano attack 1.40 + Cortes defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.29

Cortes attack 0.95 + Corellano defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Corellano scores more

39%

level

27%

Cortes scores more

34%

Corellano at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Corellano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff