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Corellano vs Cantolagua — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Corellano
Corellano
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cantolagua
Cantolagua
2/20/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 21Campo CD Corellano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Corellano39%
×Draw26%
Cantolagua35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corellano
1.41
Cantolagua
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 77 away

creates per match

Corellano
1.40
Cantolagua
1.19

allows per match

Corellano
1.44
Cantolagua
1.42

finishing

Corellano+0.00on par
Cantolagua+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corellano ↓

Cantolagua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Corellano or draw
65%
Corellano or Cantolagua
74%
Draw or Cantolagua
61%

Winning margin

Corellano wins by 2+
18%
Cantolagua wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Corellano 1+ goals
76%
Corellano 2+ goals
41%
Corellano 3+ goals
17%
Cantolagua 1+ goals
73%
Cantolagua 2+ goals
38%
Cantolagua 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Corellano (draw refunded)
53%
Cantolagua (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corellano at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.44 · 43 matches

Cantolagua away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.42 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corellano attack 1.40 + Cantolagua defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.41

Cantolagua attack 1.19 + Corellano defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Corellano scores more
39%
level
26%
Cantolagua scores more
35%

Corellano at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Corellano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Corellano 3–1 Cantolagua

Corellano beat Cantolagua 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on February 20, 2022.

The match was played at Campo CD Corellano in Corella.