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Cordoba vs Racing Ferrol — Segunda División 2018

Cordoba
Cordoba
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
9/29/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 7Estadio Nuevo Arcángel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Cordoba48%
×Draw25%
Racing Ferrol27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cordoba
1.54
Racing Ferrol
1.08

Cordoba creates 43% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 42 away

creates per match

Cordoba
1.53
Racing Ferrol
0.67

allows per match

Cordoba
1.50
Racing Ferrol
1.55

finishing

Cordoba+0.00on par
Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cordoba ↓

Racing Ferrol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cordoba or draw
73%
Cordoba or Racing Ferrol
75%
Draw or Racing Ferrol
52%

Winning margin

Cordoba wins by 2+
24%
Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cordoba 1+ goals
79%
Cordoba 2+ goals
45%
Cordoba 3+ goals
20%
Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
66%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
29%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cordoba (draw refunded)
64%
Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cordoba at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.50 · 66 matches

Racing Ferrol away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.55 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cordoba attack 1.53 + Racing Ferrol defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.54

Racing Ferrol attack 0.67 + Cordoba defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cordoba scores more
48%
level
25%
Racing Ferrol scores more
27%

Cordoba at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cordoba vs Racing Ferrol

Cordoba beat Racing Ferrol 3-1 in Segunda División on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Arcángel in Córdoba.