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Cordoba vs Mérida AD — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Cordoba
Cordoba
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mérida AD
Mérida AD
10/14/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Estadio Nuevo Arcángel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cordoba58%
×Draw25%
Mérida AD17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cordoba
1.62
Mérida AD
0.75

Cordoba creates 116% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Cordoba
1.79
Mérida AD
0.87

allows per match

Cordoba
0.63
Mérida AD
1.45

finishing

Cordoba+0.00on par
Mérida AD+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cordoba ↓

Mérida AD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cordoba or draw
83%
Cordoba or Mérida AD
75%
Draw or Mérida AD
42%

Winning margin

Cordoba wins by 2+
32%
Mérida AD wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cordoba 1+ goals
80%
Cordoba 2+ goals
48%
Cordoba 3+ goals
22%
Mérida AD 1+ goals
53%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
17%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cordoba (draw refunded)
77%
Mérida AD (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cordoba at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.63 · 19 matches

Mérida AD away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cordoba attack 1.79 + Mérida AD defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.62

Mérida AD attack 0.87 + Cordoba defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Cordoba scores more
58%
level
25%
Mérida AD scores more
17%

Cordoba at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cordoba vs Mérida AD

Cordoba beat Mérida AD 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Arcángel in Córdoba.