Cordoba 0–1 Linares Deportivo: Result & Stats

Cordoba

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Linares Deportivo

9/16/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Estadio Nuevo Arcángel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cordoba58%

×Draw23%

Linares Deportivo19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CordobaExpected goals in this matchLinares Deportivo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.94

Cordoba

1.81

Linares Deportivo

0.94

Cordoba creates 93% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

1.79

creates per match

1.24

0.63

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Cordoba

1.79

Linares Deportivo

1.24

allows per match

Cordoba

0.63

Linares Deportivo

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cordoba+0.00on par

Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cordoba ↓

Linares Deportivo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cordoba or draw

81%

Cordoba or Linares Deportivo

77%

Draw or Linares Deportivo

42%

Winning margin

Cordoba wins by 2+

33%

Linares Deportivo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cordoba 1+ goals

84%

Cordoba 2+ goals

54%

Cordoba 3+ goals

27%

Linares Deportivo 1+ goals

61%

Linares Deportivo 2+ goals

24%

Linares Deportivo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cordoba (draw refunded)

75%

Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cordoba at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.63 · 19 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cordoba attack 1.79 + Linares Deportivo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.81

Linares Deportivo attack 1.24 + Cordoba defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Cordoba scores more

58%

level

23%

Linares Deportivo scores more

19%

Cordoba at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff