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Cordoba vs Deportivo La Coruna — Segunda División 2018

Cordoba
Cordoba
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo La Coruna
9/13/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 5Estadio Nuevo Arcángel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Cordoba37%
×Draw26%
Deportivo La Coruna37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cordoba
1.34
Deportivo La Coruna
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 85 away

creates per match

Cordoba
1.53
Deportivo La Coruna
1.15

allows per match

Cordoba
1.50
Deportivo La Coruna
1.15

finishing

Cordoba+0.00on par
Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cordoba ↓

Deportivo La Coruna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cordoba or draw
63%
Cordoba or Deportivo La Coruna
74%
Draw or Deportivo La Coruna
63%

Winning margin

Cordoba wins by 2+
17%
Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Cordoba 1+ goals
74%
Cordoba 2+ goals
39%
Cordoba 3+ goals
15%
Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals
73%
Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals
38%
Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cordoba (draw refunded)
51%
Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cordoba at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.50 · 66 matches

Deportivo La Coruna away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cordoba attack 1.53 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.34

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.15 + Cordoba defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cordoba scores more
37%
level
26%
Deportivo La Coruna scores more
37%

Cordoba at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Cordoba 2–0 Deportivo La Coruna

Cordoba beat Deportivo La Coruna 2-0 in Segunda División on September 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Arcángel in Córdoba.