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Cordoba vs Celta de Vigo II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Cordoba
Cordoba
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Celta de Vigo II
Celta de Vigo II
1/29/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Estadio Nuevo Arcángel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cordoba44%
×Draw26%
Celta de Vigo II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cordoba
1.44
Celta de Vigo II
1.14

Cordoba creates 26% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 120 away

creates per match

Cordoba
1.58
Celta de Vigo II
1.33

allows per match

Cordoba
0.95
Celta de Vigo II
1.29

finishing

Cordoba+0.00on par
Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cordoba ↓

Celta de Vigo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cordoba or draw
70%
Cordoba or Celta de Vigo II
74%
Draw or Celta de Vigo II
56%

Winning margin

Cordoba wins by 2+
21%
Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cordoba 1+ goals
76%
Cordoba 2+ goals
42%
Cordoba 3+ goals
18%
Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals
68%
Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals
32%
Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cordoba (draw refunded)
59%
Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cordoba at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cordoba attack 1.58 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.44

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + Cordoba defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cordoba scores more
44%
level
26%
Celta de Vigo II scores more
30%

Cordoba at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Cordoba 0–2 Celta de Vigo II

Celta de Vigo II beat Cordoba 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Arcángel in Córdoba.