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Cordoba vs Atlético Baleares — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Cordoba
Cordoba
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Baleares
Atlético Baleares
3/10/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 27Estadio Nuevo Arcángel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cordoba58%
×Draw25%
Atlético Baleares17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cordoba
1.60
Atlético Baleares
0.72

Cordoba creates 122% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Cordoba
1.79
Atlético Baleares
0.82

allows per match

Cordoba
0.63
Atlético Baleares
1.42

finishing

Cordoba+0.00on par
Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cordoba ↓

Atlético Baleares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cordoba or draw
83%
Cordoba or Atlético Baleares
75%
Draw or Atlético Baleares
42%

Winning margin

Cordoba wins by 2+
32%
Atlético Baleares wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cordoba 1+ goals
80%
Cordoba 2+ goals
47%
Cordoba 3+ goals
22%
Atlético Baleares 1+ goals
51%
Atlético Baleares 2+ goals
16%
Atlético Baleares 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cordoba (draw refunded)
78%
Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cordoba at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.63 · 19 matches

Atlético Baleares away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.42 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cordoba attack 1.79 + Atlético Baleares defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.60

Atlético Baleares attack 0.82 + Cordoba defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Cordoba scores more
58%
level
25%
Atlético Baleares scores more
17%

Cordoba at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cordoba vs Atlético Baleares

Cordoba beat Atlético Baleares 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Arcángel in Córdoba.