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Cordoba vs Algeciras — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Cordoba
Cordoba
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Algeciras
Algeciras
10/15/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Estadio Nuevo Arcángel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cordoba49%
×Draw26%
Algeciras24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cordoba
1.50
Algeciras
0.97

Cordoba creates 55% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Cordoba
1.58
Algeciras
1.00

allows per match

Cordoba
0.95
Algeciras
1.42

finishing

Cordoba+0.00on par
Algeciras+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cordoba ↓

Algeciras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cordoba or draw
76%
Cordoba or Algeciras
74%
Draw or Algeciras
51%

Winning margin

Cordoba wins by 2+
25%
Algeciras wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cordoba 1+ goals
78%
Cordoba 2+ goals
44%
Cordoba 3+ goals
19%
Algeciras 1+ goals
62%
Algeciras 2+ goals
25%
Algeciras 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cordoba (draw refunded)
67%
Algeciras (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cordoba at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Algeciras away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cordoba attack 1.58 + Algeciras defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.50

Algeciras attack 1.00 + Cordoba defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cordoba scores more
49%
level
26%
Algeciras scores more
24%

Cordoba at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Cordoba 3–1 Algeciras

Cordoba beat Algeciras 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Arcángel in Córdoba.