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Cordoba vs AD Ceuta FC — Segunda División 2018

Cordoba
Cordoba
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
AD Ceuta FC
AD Ceuta FC
11/2/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 12Estadio Nuevo Arcángel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Cordoba47%
×Draw24%
AD Ceuta FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cordoba
1.71
AD Ceuta FC
1.30

Cordoba creates 32% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 21 away

creates per match

Cordoba
1.53
AD Ceuta FC
1.10

allows per match

Cordoba
1.50
AD Ceuta FC
1.90

finishing

Cordoba+0.00on par
AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cordoba ↓

AD Ceuta FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Cordoba or draw
71%
Cordoba or AD Ceuta FC
76%
Draw or AD Ceuta FC
53%

Winning margin

Cordoba wins by 2+
25%
AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cordoba 1+ goals
82%
Cordoba 2+ goals
51%
Cordoba 3+ goals
24%
AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals
73%
AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals
37%
AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cordoba (draw refunded)
62%
AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cordoba at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.50 · 66 matches

AD Ceuta FC away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cordoba attack 1.53 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.71

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.10 + Cordoba defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cordoba scores more
47%
level
24%
AD Ceuta FC scores more
29%

Cordoba at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cordoba vs AD Ceuta FC

Cordoba beat AD Ceuta FC 2-0 in Segunda División on November 2, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Arcángel in Córdoba.