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Córdoba II vs La Palma — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Córdoba II
Córdoba II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
La Palma
La Palma
Pau Russó 44'
Óscar Jiménez 18' (pen)
Zaca 78', 68'
11/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 11Ciudad Deportiva Rafael Gómez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Córdoba II53%
×Draw25%
La Palma22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Córdoba II
1.64
La Palma
0.97

Córdoba II creates 69% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 48 away

creates per match

Córdoba II
1.60
La Palma
0.88

allows per match

Córdoba II
1.05
La Palma
1.67

finishing

Córdoba II+0.00on par
La Palma+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Córdoba II ↓

La Palma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Córdoba II or draw
78%
Córdoba II or La Palma
75%
Draw or La Palma
47%

Winning margin

Córdoba II wins by 2+
28%
La Palma wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Córdoba II 1+ goals
81%
Córdoba II 2+ goals
49%
Córdoba II 3+ goals
23%
La Palma 1+ goals
62%
La Palma 2+ goals
25%
La Palma 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Córdoba II (draw refunded)
70%
La Palma (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Córdoba II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

La Palma away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Córdoba II attack 1.60 + La Palma defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

La Palma attack 0.88 + Córdoba II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Córdoba II scores more
53%
level
25%
La Palma scores more
22%

Córdoba II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Córdoba II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
Óscar JiménezPenalty
44'
Pau Russó
60'
Paquito Fernández← Ismael Salguero
63'
Bouba Ba← Gonzalo del Castillo
63'
Pedro Juan← Omar
68'
Zaca
69'
Álvaro Vázquez← Mario Peregrina
69'
Rubén García← Pau Russó
78'
Zaca
85'
Álex Jiménez← Marc Esteban
85'
Álex Sánchez← Antonio Mesa
85'
Manolo Suárez← Álvaro Fernández
87'
Álvaro Perea← Zaca
Córdoba
La
Juan Corrales
Corrales
Antonio Mesa
▼
Mesa
Rafa Navarro
Navarro
Juan Aguilar
Aguilar
Andrés Pavón
Pavón
Alejandro Pérez
Pérez
Gonzalo del Castillo
▼
Castillo
Omar
▼
Omar
Álvaro Fernández
▼
Fernández
Juan Benítez
Benítez
Zaca
⚽2
▼
Zaca
Iván Morales
Morales
Matías Barboza
Barboza
Álex Fernández
Fernández
Adrián Vázquez
Vázquez
J. Moisello
Moisello
Marc Esteban
▼
Esteban
Pau Russó
⚽
▼
Russó
Mario Peregrina
▼
Peregrina
Ismael Salguero
▼
Salguero
Alberto Vela
Vela
Óscar Jiménez
⚽
Jiménez
Diego Caro
Manager: Diego Caro
60'▲Paquito Fernández←▼Ismael Salguero
69'▲Álvaro Vázquez←▼Mario Peregrina
69'▲Rubén García←▼Pau Russó
85'▲Álex Jiménez←▼Marc Esteban

Córdoba II substitutes

FernándezVázquezGarcíaJiménez
Nacho Molina
Manager: Nacho Molina
63'▲Bouba Ba←▼Gonzalo del Castillo
63'▲Pedro Juan←▼Omar
85'▲Álex Sánchez←▼Antonio Mesa
85'▲Manolo Suárez←▼Álvaro Fernández
87'▲Álvaro Perea←▼Zaca

La Palma substitutes

BaJuanSánchezSuárezPerea

Match Recap: Córdoba II vs La Palma

Córdoba II and La Palma drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 19, 2023.

Goals: Óscar Jiménez (18' pen), Pau Russó (44'), Zaca (68', 78').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Rafael Gómez in Córdoba.