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Córdoba II vs La Palma — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Córdoba II
Córdoba II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
La Palma
La Palma
Luismi Redondo 40', 5'
Diego Domínguez 10'
Galleti 20'
11/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 6Estadio Nuevo Arcángel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Córdoba II53%
×Draw25%
La Palma22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Córdoba II
1.64
La Palma
0.97

Córdoba II creates 69% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 48 away

creates per match

Córdoba II
1.60
La Palma
0.88

allows per match

Córdoba II
1.05
La Palma
1.67

finishing

Córdoba II+0.00on par
La Palma+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Córdoba II ↓

La Palma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Córdoba II or draw
78%
Córdoba II or La Palma
75%
Draw or La Palma
47%

Winning margin

Córdoba II wins by 2+
28%
La Palma wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Córdoba II 1+ goals
81%
Córdoba II 2+ goals
49%
Córdoba II 3+ goals
23%
La Palma 1+ goals
62%
La Palma 2+ goals
25%
La Palma 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Córdoba II (draw refunded)
70%
La Palma (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Córdoba II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

La Palma away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Córdoba II attack 1.60 + La Palma defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

La Palma attack 0.88 + Córdoba II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Córdoba II scores more
53%
level
25%
La Palma scores more
22%

Córdoba II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Córdoba II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
Luismi Redondo
10'
Diego Domínguez
20'
Galleti
40'
Luismi Redondo
46'
Manolo Suárez← Carlos Martínez
46'
Nené← Alberto Sánchez
46'
Segura← Alvarito
54'
Mazin← José Arias
60'
Diego García← Diego Domínguez
62'
Miguel Gómez← Iván Navarro
62'
Felipe Veloso← Alejandro Marcelo
70'
Manu Cruzado← Galleti
79'
Antonio Moyano← Luismi Redondo
79'
Adrián Tellado← Puga
Córdoba
La
Javier Roldán
Roldán
Diego Domínguez
Domínguez
Carlos Martínez
▼
Martínez
Juan Aguilar
Aguilar
Alberto Sánchez
▼
Sánchez
Andrés Pavón
Pavón
Paco
Paco
Mario de Iraola
Iraola
Alvarito
▼
Alvarito
José Arias
▼
Arias
Galleti
⚽
▼
Galleti
J. Laverge
Laverge
Francisco Núñez
Núñez
Álex Sánchez
Sánchez
Meléndez
Meléndez
Visus
Visus
Iván Navarro
▼
Navarro
Alberto Del Moral
Moral
Puga
▼
Puga
Luismi Redondo
⚽2
▼
Redondo
Alejandro Marcelo
▼
Marcelo
Diego Domínguez
⚽
▼
Domínguez
Germán Crespo
Manager: Germán Crespo
60'▲Diego García←▼Diego Domínguez
62'▲Miguel Gómez←▼Iván Navarro
62'▲Felipe Veloso←▼Alejandro Marcelo
79'▲Antonio Moyano←▼Luismi Redondo
79'▲Adrián Tellado←▼Puga

Córdoba II substitutes

GarcíaGómezVelosoMoyanoTellado
Mario Rodriguez
Manager: Mario Rodriguez
46'▲Manolo Suárez←▼Carlos Martínez
46'▲Nené←▼Alberto Sánchez
46'▲Segura←▼Alvarito
54'▲Mazin←▼José Arias
70'▲Manu Cruzado←▼Galleti

La Palma substitutes

SuárezNenéSeguraMazinCruzado

Córdoba II 3 – 1 La Palma

Córdoba II beat La Palma 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 22, 2020.

Goals: Luismi Redondo (5', 40'), Diego Domínguez (10'), Galleti (20').

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Arcángel in Córdoba.