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Córdoba II vs Écija — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Córdoba II
Córdoba II
FT
3 – 0
Écija
Écija
4/18/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 34Ciudad Deportiva Rafael Gómez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Córdoba II77%
×Draw16%
Écija7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Córdoba II
2.30
Écija
0.53

Córdoba II creates 334% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 18 away

creates per match

Córdoba II
1.60
Écija
0.00

allows per match

Córdoba II
1.05
Écija
3.00

finishing

Córdoba II+0.00on par
Écija+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Córdoba II ↓

Écija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Córdoba II or draw
93%
Córdoba II or Écija
84%
Draw or Écija
23%

Winning margin

Córdoba II wins by 2+
53%
Écija wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Córdoba II 1+ goals
90%
Córdoba II 2+ goals
67%
Córdoba II 3+ goals
40%
Écija 1+ goals
41%
Écija 2+ goals
10%
Écija 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Córdoba II (draw refunded)
92%
Écija (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Córdoba II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

Écija away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Córdoba II attack 1.60 + Écija defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.30

Écija attack 0.00 + Córdoba II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Córdoba II scores more
77%
level
16%
Écija scores more
7%

Córdoba II at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Córdoba II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Córdoba II vs Écija

Córdoba II beat Écija 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on April 18, 2020.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Rafael Gómez in Córdoba.