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Córdoba II vs Dos Hermanas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Córdoba II
Córdoba II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dos Hermanas
Dos Hermanas
3/1/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 24Ciudad Deportiva Rafael Gómez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Córdoba II41%
×Draw24%
Dos Hermanas34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Córdoba II
1.56
Dos Hermanas
1.40

Córdoba II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 19 away

creates per match

Córdoba II
1.60
Dos Hermanas
1.74

allows per match

Córdoba II
1.05
Dos Hermanas
1.53

finishing

Córdoba II+0.00on par
Dos Hermanas+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Córdoba II ↓

Dos Hermanas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Córdoba II or draw
66%
Córdoba II or Dos Hermanas
76%
Draw or Dos Hermanas
59%

Winning margin

Córdoba II wins by 2+
20%
Dos Hermanas wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Córdoba II 1+ goals
79%
Córdoba II 2+ goals
46%
Córdoba II 3+ goals
21%
Dos Hermanas 1+ goals
75%
Dos Hermanas 2+ goals
41%
Dos Hermanas 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Córdoba II (draw refunded)
55%
Dos Hermanas (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Córdoba II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

Dos Hermanas away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Córdoba II attack 1.60 + Dos Hermanas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56

Dos Hermanas attack 1.74 + Córdoba II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Córdoba II scores more
41%
level
24%
Dos Hermanas scores more
34%

Córdoba II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Córdoba II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Córdoba II 2–2 Dos Hermanas

Córdoba II and Dos Hermanas drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on March 1, 2026.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Rafael Gómez in Córdoba.