Córdoba II 1–1 Ceuta: Result & Stats

Córdoba II

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ceuta

2/22/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 26Ciudad Deportiva Rafael Gómez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Córdoba II36%

×Draw29%

Ceuta35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Córdoba IIExpected goals in this matchCeuta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.09

Córdoba II

1.10

Ceuta

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 15 away

1.60

creates per match

1.13

1.05

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Córdoba II

1.60

Ceuta

1.13

allows per match

Córdoba II

1.05

Ceuta

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Córdoba II+0.00on par

Ceuta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Córdoba II ↓

Ceuta →

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Córdoba II or draw

65%

Córdoba II or Ceuta

71%

Draw or Ceuta

64%

Winning margin

Córdoba II wins by 2+

14%

Ceuta wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Córdoba II 1+ goals

67%

Córdoba II 2+ goals

30%

Córdoba II 3+ goals

10%

Ceuta 1+ goals

66%

Ceuta 2+ goals

30%

Ceuta 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Córdoba II (draw refunded)

50%

Ceuta (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Córdoba II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

Ceuta away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Córdoba II attack 1.60 + Ceuta defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.10

Ceuta attack 1.13 + Córdoba II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Córdoba II scores more

36%

level

29%

Ceuta scores more

35%

Córdoba II at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Córdoba II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff