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Córdoba II vs Arcos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Córdoba II
Córdoba II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Arcos
Arcos
2/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 24Ciudad Deportiva Rafael Gómez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Córdoba II54%
×Draw25%
Arcos21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Córdoba II
1.60
Arcos
0.88

Córdoba II creates 82% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 28 away

creates per match

Córdoba II
1.60
Arcos
0.71

allows per match

Córdoba II
1.05
Arcos
1.61

finishing

Córdoba II+0.00on par
Arcos+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Córdoba II ↓

Arcos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Córdoba II or draw
79%
Córdoba II or Arcos
75%
Draw or Arcos
46%

Winning margin

Córdoba II wins by 2+
29%
Arcos wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Córdoba II 1+ goals
80%
Córdoba II 2+ goals
47%
Córdoba II 3+ goals
22%
Arcos 1+ goals
59%
Arcos 2+ goals
22%
Arcos 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Córdoba II (draw refunded)
72%
Arcos (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Córdoba II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

Arcos away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Córdoba II attack 1.60 + Arcos defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.60

Arcos attack 0.71 + Córdoba II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Córdoba II scores more
54%
level
25%
Arcos scores more
21%

Córdoba II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Córdoba II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Córdoba II 2–1 Arcos

Córdoba II beat Arcos 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Rafael Gómez in Córdoba.