Cordino 1–3 ITZ Sport: Result & Stats

Cordino

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

ITZ Sport

10/1/2025

Maranhense - 2 · Maranhense 2 - 6Estádio Municipal Leandro Cláudio da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cordino32%

×Draw31%

ITZ Sport37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CordinoExpected goals in this matchITZ Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.02

Cordino

0.94

ITZ Sport

1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

1.00

creates per match

0.88

1.17

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Cordino

1.00

ITZ Sport

0.88

allows per match

Cordino

1.17

ITZ Sport

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cordino+0.00on par

ITZ Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cordino ↓

ITZ Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Cordino or draw

63%

Cordino or ITZ Sport

69%

Draw or ITZ Sport

68%

Winning margin

Cordino wins by 2+

12%

ITZ Sport wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cordino 1+ goals

61%

Cordino 2+ goals

24%

Cordino 3+ goals

7%

ITZ Sport 1+ goals

64%

ITZ Sport 2+ goals

27%

ITZ Sport 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cordino (draw refunded)

47%

ITZ Sport (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cordino at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

ITZ Sport away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cordino attack 1.00 + ITZ Sport defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

ITZ Sport attack 0.88 + Cordino defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cordino scores more

32%

level

31%

ITZ Sport scores more

37%

ITZ Sport at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "ITZ Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff