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Cordino vs Interporto — Serie D 2018

Cordino
Cordino
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Interporto
Interporto
5/20/2018Serie DSerie D · Round 5Estádio Municipal Leandro Cláudio da Silva (Barra do Corda, Maranhão)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Cordino75%
×Draw15%
Interporto10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cordino
2.56
Interporto
0.80

Cordino creates 220% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Cordino
1.27
Interporto
0.23

allows per match

Cordino
1.36
Interporto
3.85

finishing

Cordino+0.00on par
Interporto+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cordino ↓

Interporto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Cordino or draw
90%
Cordino or Interporto
85%
Draw or Interporto
25%

Winning margin

Cordino wins by 2+
53%
Interporto wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Cordino 1+ goals
92%
Cordino 2+ goals
72%
Cordino 3+ goals
46%
Interporto 1+ goals
55%
Interporto 2+ goals
19%
Interporto 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cordino (draw refunded)
89%
Interporto (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cordino at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Interporto away — creates 0.23, concedes 3.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cordino attack 1.27 + Interporto defence 3.85 → ÷2 → 2.56

Interporto attack 0.23 + Cordino defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Cordino scores more
75%
level
15%
Interporto scores more
10%

Cordino at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Cordino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cordino vs Interporto

Cordino beat Interporto 2-1 in Serie D on May 20, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Leandro Cláudio da Silva (Barra do Corda, Maranhão).