Cordino 3–3 Ferroviario: Result & Stats | Serie D

Cordino

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Ferroviario

Andre Radija 74'

Pedro Igor 53'

Ullisses 10'

Janeudo 55'

Edson Caríus 47', 24'

6/3/2018

Serie D · 16th FinalsEstádio Municipal Leandro Cláudio da Silva (Barra do Corda, Maranhão)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Cordino36%

×Draw27%

Ferroviario37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CordinoExpected goals in this matchFerroviario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.23

Cordino

1.21

Ferroviario

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 35 away

1.20

creates per match

1.06

1.40

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Cordino

1.20

Ferroviario

1.06

allows per match

Cordino

1.40

Ferroviario

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cordino+0.00on par

Ferroviario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cordino ↓

Ferroviario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cordino or draw

63%

Cordino or Ferroviario

73%

Draw or Ferroviario

64%

Winning margin

Cordino wins by 2+

15%

Ferroviario wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cordino 1+ goals

70%

Cordino 2+ goals

34%

Cordino 3+ goals

12%

Ferroviario 1+ goals

71%

Ferroviario 2+ goals

35%

Ferroviario 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cordino (draw refunded)

49%

Ferroviario (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cordino at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Ferroviario away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.23 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cordino attack 1.20 + Ferroviario defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

Ferroviario attack 1.06 + Cordino defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cordino scores more

36%

level

27%

Ferroviario scores more

37%

Ferroviario at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ferroviario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Ullisses

24'

Edson Caríus

46'

Pedro Igor← Keulson

46'

Juninho Quixadá← Luis Soares

47'

53'

55'

58'

58'

Liniker← Robson Simplício

71'

Igor← Emerson

74'

Andre Radija

83'

Afonso← Gleidson

Cordino

Ferroviario

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: Marlon Cutrim

46'▲Pedro Igor←▼Keulson

58'▲Fabio Lima←▼Jocivan

71'▲Igor←▼Emerson

Cordino substitutes

IgorLimaIgorAlexMarquinhoMateusPabloMarcioRicardinho

Manager: Marcelo Vilar

46'▲Juninho Quixadá←▼Luis Soares

58'▲Liniker←▼Robson Simplício

83'▲Afonso←▼Gleidson

Ferroviario substitutes

QuixadáLinikerAfonsoGleibsonDuduJeanBispoValdeciVitinho