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Cordino vs Balsas — Maranhense - 2 2026

Cordino
Cordino
FT
2 – 2
Balsas
Balsas
7/4/2026Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Cordino46%
×Draw29%
Balsas25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cordino
1.25
Balsas
0.83

Cordino creates 51% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Cordino
1.00
Balsas
0.50

allows per match

Cordino
1.17
Balsas
1.50

finishing

Cordino+0.00on par
Balsas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 66Over: 3466%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 60Yes: 4060%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cordino ↓

Balsas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Cordino or draw
75%
Cordino or Balsas
71%
Draw or Balsas
54%

Winning margin

Cordino wins by 2+
21%
Balsas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cordino 1+ goals
71%
Cordino 2+ goals
36%
Cordino 3+ goals
13%
Balsas 1+ goals
56%
Balsas 2+ goals
20%
Balsas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cordino (draw refunded)
65%
Balsas (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cordino at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Balsas away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cordino attack 1.00 + Balsas defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Balsas attack 0.50 + Cordino defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cordino scores more
46%
level
29%
Balsas scores more
25%

Cordino at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cordino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cordino vs Balsas

Cordino and Balsas drew 2-2 in Maranhense - 2 on July 4, 2026.