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Cordino vs 4 de Julho — Serie D 2018

Cordino
Cordino
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
4 de Julho
4 de Julho
5/13/2018Serie DSerie D · Round 4Estádio Municipal Leandro Cláudio da Silva (Barra do Corda, Maranhão)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Cordino39%
×Draw30%
4 de Julho31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cordino
1.14
4 de Julho
0.97

Cordino creates 18% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 19 away

creates per match

Cordino
1.27
4 de Julho
0.58

allows per match

Cordino
1.36
4 de Julho
1.00

finishing

Cordino+0.00on par
4 de Julho+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cordino ↓

4 de Julho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Cordino or draw
69%
Cordino or 4 de Julho
70%
Draw or 4 de Julho
61%

Winning margin

Cordino wins by 2+
16%
4 de Julho wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cordino 1+ goals
68%
Cordino 2+ goals
32%
Cordino 3+ goals
11%
4 de Julho 1+ goals
62%
4 de Julho 2+ goals
25%
4 de Julho 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cordino (draw refunded)
56%
4 de Julho (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cordino at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

4 de Julho away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cordino attack 1.27 + 4 de Julho defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

4 de Julho attack 0.58 + Cordino defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cordino scores more
39%
level
30%
4 de Julho scores more
31%

Cordino at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cordino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cordino vs 4 de Julho

Cordino and 4 de Julho drew 0-0 in Serie D on May 13, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Leandro Cláudio da Silva (Barra do Corda, Maranhão).