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Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica — Primera División 2018

Coquimbo Unido
Coquimbo Unido
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
U. Catolica
U. Catolica
6/3/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 15Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Coquimbo Unido38%
×Draw27%
U. Catolica36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coquimbo Unido
1.31
U. Catolica
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 96 home / 129 away

creates per match

Coquimbo Unido
1.43
U. Catolica
1.50

allows per match

Coquimbo Unido
1.04
U. Catolica
1.19

finishing

Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par
U. Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coquimbo Unido ↓

U. Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Coquimbo Unido or draw
64%
Coquimbo Unido or U. Catolica
73%
Draw or U. Catolica
62%

Winning margin

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+
17%
U. Catolica wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals
73%
Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals
38%
Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals
14%
U. Catolica 1+ goals
72%
U. Catolica 2+ goals
36%
U. Catolica 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)
51%
U. Catolica (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coquimbo Unido at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.04 · 96 matches

U. Catolica away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.19 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.43 + U. Catolica defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.31

U. Catolica attack 1.50 + Coquimbo Unido defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Coquimbo Unido scores more
38%
level
27%
U. Catolica scores more
36%

Coquimbo Unido at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Coquimbo Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Coquimbo Unido 2–0 U. Catolica

Coquimbo Unido beat U. Catolica 2-0 in Primera División on June 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Coquimbo.