Coquimbo Unido 1–1 Barnechea: Result & Stats

Coquimbo Unido

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Barnechea

C. Marín 66'

R. De Olivera 73'

8/28/2021

Primera B · Round 17Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Coquimbo Unido51%

×Draw26%

Barnechea23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coquimbo UnidoExpected goals in this matchBarnechea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.90

Coquimbo Unido

1.50

Barnechea

0.90

Coquimbo Unido creates 67% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 95 away

1.48

creates per match

1.09

0.71

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Coquimbo Unido

1.48

Barnechea

1.09

allows per match

Coquimbo Unido

0.71

Barnechea

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par

Barnechea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coquimbo Unido ↓

Barnechea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Coquimbo Unido or draw

77%

Coquimbo Unido or Barnechea

74%

Draw or Barnechea

49%

Winning margin

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+

26%

Barnechea wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals

78%

Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals

44%

Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals

19%

Barnechea 1+ goals

59%

Barnechea 2+ goals

23%

Barnechea 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)

69%

Barnechea (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coquimbo Unido at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

Barnechea away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.48 + Barnechea defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.50

Barnechea attack 1.09 + Coquimbo Unido defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Coquimbo Unido scores more

51%

level

26%

Barnechea scores more

23%

Coquimbo Unido at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Coquimbo Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

S. Felipe

9'

B. Vidal← José Aguilera

12'

C. Rencoret

46'

C. Muñoz← R. Cañas

62'

C. Marín← R. Tarifeño

62'

J. Gática← F. Manríquez

66'

C. Marín

69'

J. Salas

72'

E. Paredes← L. Garate

72'

G. Sarria← J. Beausejour

73'

R. De Olivera

78'

B. Troncoso← E. Espinoza

78'

N. Ortiz← P. Navarro

86'

G. Di Pizio← F. Flores

86'

J. Rodríguez Vuotto← G. Cubillos

Coquimbo

Barnechea

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: H. Tapia

9'▲B. Vidal←▼José Aguilera

62'▲C. Marín←▼R. Tarifeño

62'▲J. Gática←▼F. Manríquez

72'▲E. Paredes←▼L. Garate

72'▲G. Sarria←▼J. Beausejour

Coquimbo Unido substitutes

VidalMarínGáticaParedesSarriaOrellanaPontigo

Manager: H. Adomaitis

46'▲C. Muñoz←▼R. Cañas

78'▲B. Troncoso←▼E. Espinoza

78'▲N. Ortiz←▼P. Navarro

86'▲G. Di Pizio←▼F. Flores

86'▲J. Rodríguez Vuotto←▼G. Cubillos

Barnechea substitutes

MuñozTroncosoOrtizPizioVuottoGonzálezArriagada

Primera B: Coquimbo Unido 1–1 Barnechea

Coquimbo Unido and Barnechea drew 1-1 in Primera B on August 28, 2021.

Goals: C. Marín (66'), R. De Olivera (73').

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Coquimbo.

Coquimbo Unido vs Barnechea — Primera B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera B: Coquimbo Unido 1–1 Barnechea