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Cooks Hill United vs Charlestown City Blues — Northern NSW NPL 2026

Cooks Hill United
Cooks Hill United
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Charlestown City Blues
Charlestown City Blues
3/16/2024Northern NSW NPLNorthern NSW NPL · Round 4Fearnley Dawes Athletic Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Cooks Hill United38%
×Draw23%
Charlestown City Blues39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cooks Hill United
1.63
Charlestown City Blues
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 81 away

creates per match

Cooks Hill United
1.83
Charlestown City Blues
1.59

allows per match

Cooks Hill United
1.69
Charlestown City Blues
1.42

finishing

Cooks Hill United+0.00on par
Charlestown City Blues+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cooks Hill United ↓

Charlestown City Blues →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Cooks Hill United or draw
61%
Cooks Hill United or Charlestown City Blues
77%
Draw or Charlestown City Blues
62%

Winning margin

Cooks Hill United wins by 2+
19%
Charlestown City Blues wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Cooks Hill United 1+ goals
80%
Cooks Hill United 2+ goals
48%
Cooks Hill United 3+ goals
22%
Charlestown City Blues 1+ goals
81%
Charlestown City Blues 2+ goals
49%
Charlestown City Blues 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Cooks Hill United (draw refunded)
50%
Charlestown City Blues (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cooks Hill United at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.69 · 52 matches

Charlestown City Blues away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.42 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cooks Hill United attack 1.83 + Charlestown City Blues defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.63

Charlestown City Blues attack 1.59 + Cooks Hill United defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cooks Hill United scores more
38%
level
23%
Charlestown City Blues scores more
39%

Charlestown City Blues at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Charlestown City Blues will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Northern NSW NPL: Cooks Hill United 0–2 Charlestown City Blues

Charlestown City Blues beat Cooks Hill United 2-0 in Northern NSW NPL on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Fearnley Dawes Athletic Centre in Newcastle.