Charlestown City Blues 1–2 Cooks Hill United

Charlestown City Blues

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Cooks Hill United

7/19/2025

Northern NSW NPL · Round 20Lisle Carr Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Charlestown City Blues42%

×Draw22%

Cooks Hill United36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Charlestown City BluesExpected goals in this matchCooks Hill United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.67

Charlestown City Blues

1.81

Cooks Hill United

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 52 away

1.66

creates per match

1.85

1.48

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Charlestown City Blues

1.66

Cooks Hill United

1.85

allows per match

Charlestown City Blues

1.48

Cooks Hill United

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charlestown City Blues+0.00on par

Cooks Hill United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlestown City Blues ↓

Cooks Hill United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Charlestown City Blues or draw

64%

Charlestown City Blues or Cooks Hill United

78%

Draw or Cooks Hill United

58%

Winning margin

Charlestown City Blues wins by 2+

22%

Cooks Hill United wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Charlestown City Blues 1+ goals

84%

Charlestown City Blues 2+ goals

54%

Charlestown City Blues 3+ goals

27%

Cooks Hill United 1+ goals

81%

Cooks Hill United 2+ goals

50%

Cooks Hill United 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Charlestown City Blues (draw refunded)

54%

Cooks Hill United (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlestown City Blues at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.48 · 79 matches

Cooks Hill United away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.96 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlestown City Blues attack 1.66 + Cooks Hill United defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.81

Cooks Hill United attack 1.85 + Charlestown City Blues defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Charlestown City Blues scores more

42%

level

22%

Cooks Hill United scores more

36%

Charlestown City Blues at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Charlestown City Blues will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff