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Contagem U20 vs XV de Novembro U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Contagem U20
Contagem U20
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
XV de Novembro U20
XV de Novembro U20
8/17/2024Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 15Estádio Municipal de Ibirité

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Contagem U2061%
×Draw19%
XV de Novembro U2020%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Contagem U20
2.38
XV de Novembro U20
1.30

Contagem U20 creates 83% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Contagem U20
1.69
XV de Novembro U20
0.92

allows per match

Contagem U20
1.69
XV de Novembro U20
3.08

finishing

Contagem U20+0.00on par
XV de Novembro U20+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Contagem U20 ↓

XV de Novembro U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Contagem U20 or draw
80%
Contagem U20 or XV de Novembro U20
81%
Draw or XV de Novembro U20
39%

Winning margin

Contagem U20 wins by 2+
39%
XV de Novembro U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Contagem U20 1+ goals
91%
Contagem U20 2+ goals
68%
Contagem U20 3+ goals
42%
XV de Novembro U20 1+ goals
73%
XV de Novembro U20 2+ goals
37%
XV de Novembro U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Contagem U20 (draw refunded)
75%
XV de Novembro U20 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Contagem U20 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

XV de Novembro U20 away — creates 0.92, concedes 3.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Contagem U20 attack 1.69 + XV de Novembro U20 defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.38

XV de Novembro U20 attack 0.92 + Contagem U20 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Contagem U20 scores more
61%
level
19%
XV de Novembro U20 scores more
20%

Contagem U20 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Contagem U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro U20: Contagem U20 3–1 XV de Novembro U20

Contagem U20 beat XV de Novembro U20 3-1 in Mineiro U20 on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Ibirité in Ibirité, Minas Gerais.