Contagem U20 1–0 Santarritense U20: Result & Stats

Contagem U20

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Santarritense U20

Unknown 90+8'

6/29/2024

Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Municipal de Ibirité

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Contagem U2066%

×Draw19%

Santarritense U2015%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Contagem U20Expected goals in this matchSantarritense U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

0.92

Contagem U20

2.20

Santarritense U20

0.92

Contagem U20 creates 139% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

1.69

creates per match

0.14

1.69

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Contagem U20

1.69

Santarritense U20

0.14

allows per match

Contagem U20

1.69

Santarritense U20

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Contagem U20+0.00on par

Santarritense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Contagem U20 ↓

Santarritense U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Contagem U20 or draw

85%

Contagem U20 or Santarritense U20

81%

Draw or Santarritense U20

34%

Winning margin

Contagem U20 wins by 2+

43%

Santarritense U20 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Contagem U20 1+ goals

89%

Contagem U20 2+ goals

64%

Contagem U20 3+ goals

37%

Santarritense U20 1+ goals

60%

Santarritense U20 2+ goals

23%

Santarritense U20 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Contagem U20 (draw refunded)

82%

Santarritense U20 (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Contagem U20 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Santarritense U20 away — creates 0.14, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Contagem U20 attack 1.69 + Santarritense U20 defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.20

Santarritense U20 attack 0.14 + Contagem U20 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Contagem U20 scores more

66%

level

19%

Santarritense U20 scores more

15%

Contagem U20 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Contagem U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+8'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff