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Contagem U20 vs Itabirito U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Contagem U20
Contagem U20
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Itabirito U20
Itabirito U20
Emanuel 89' (pen)
Mateus 24'
T. H. Silva Dias 18'
6/27/2025Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 6Campo do Durval de Barros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Contagem U2046%
×Draw25%
Itabirito U2029%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Contagem U20
1.57
Itabirito U20
1.21

Contagem U20 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

creates per match

Contagem U20
1.69
Itabirito U20
0.73

allows per match

Contagem U20
1.69
Itabirito U20
1.45

finishing

Contagem U20+0.00on par
Itabirito U20+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Contagem U20 ↓

Itabirito U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Contagem U20 or draw
71%
Contagem U20 or Itabirito U20
75%
Draw or Itabirito U20
54%

Winning margin

Contagem U20 wins by 2+
23%
Itabirito U20 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Contagem U20 1+ goals
79%
Contagem U20 2+ goals
46%
Contagem U20 3+ goals
21%
Itabirito U20 1+ goals
70%
Itabirito U20 2+ goals
34%
Itabirito U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Contagem U20 (draw refunded)
61%
Itabirito U20 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Contagem U20 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Itabirito U20 away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Contagem U20 attack 1.69 + Itabirito U20 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.57

Itabirito U20 attack 0.73 + Contagem U20 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Contagem U20 scores more
46%
level
25%
Itabirito U20 scores more
29%

Contagem U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Contagem U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
T. H. Silva Dias
24'
Mateus
89'
EmanuelPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Contagem U20 1 – 2 Itabirito U20

Itabirito U20 beat Contagem U20 2-1 in Mineiro U20 on June 27, 2025.

Goals: T. H. Silva Dias (18'), Mateus (24'), Emanuel (89' pen).

The match was played at Campo do Durval de Barros in Ibirité, Minas Gerais.