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Contagem U20 vs Ipatinga U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Contagem U20
Contagem U20
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ipatinga U20
Ipatinga U20
Unknown 85', 72', 63', 51'
Unknown 77'
7/13/2024Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Municipal de Ibirité

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Contagem U2077%
×Draw13%
Ipatinga U2010%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Contagem U20
3.13
Ipatinga U20
1.06

Contagem U20 creates 195% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

creates per match

Contagem U20
1.69
Ipatinga U20
0.43

allows per match

Contagem U20
1.69
Ipatinga U20
4.57

finishing

Contagem U20+0.00on par
Ipatinga U20+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Contagem U20 ↓

Ipatinga U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Contagem U20 or draw
90%
Contagem U20 or Ipatinga U20
87%
Draw or Ipatinga U20
23%

Winning margin

Contagem U20 wins by 2+
58%
Ipatinga U20 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Contagem U20 1+ goals
95%
Contagem U20 2+ goals
81%
Contagem U20 3+ goals
59%
Ipatinga U20 1+ goals
65%
Ipatinga U20 2+ goals
29%
Ipatinga U20 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Contagem U20 (draw refunded)
89%
Ipatinga U20 (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Contagem U20 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Ipatinga U20 away — creates 0.43, concedes 4.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Contagem U20 attack 1.69 + Ipatinga U20 defence 4.57 → ÷2 → 3.13

Ipatinga U20 attack 0.43 + Contagem U20 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Contagem U20 scores more
77%
level
13%
Ipatinga U20 scores more
10%

Contagem U20 at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Contagem U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'
63'
72'
77'
85'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro U20: Contagem U20 4–1 Ipatinga U20

Contagem U20 beat Ipatinga U20 4-1 in Mineiro U20 on July 13, 2024.

Goals: ? (51', 63', 72', 77', 85').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Ibirité in Ibirité, Minas Gerais.