Contagem U20 4–0 Futgol U20: Result & Stats

Contagem U20

FT

4 – 0

Futgol U20

5/18/2024

Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Municipal de Ibirité

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Contagem U2042%

×Draw22%

Futgol U2036%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Contagem U20Expected goals in this matchFutgol U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.71

Contagem U20

1.84

Futgol U20

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

1.69

creates per match

1.73

1.69

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Contagem U20

1.69

Futgol U20

1.73

allows per match

Contagem U20

1.69

Futgol U20

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Contagem U20+0.00on par

Futgol U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Contagem U20 ↓

Futgol U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Contagem U20 or draw

64%

Contagem U20 or Futgol U20

78%

Draw or Futgol U20

58%

Winning margin

Contagem U20 wins by 2+

22%

Futgol U20 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Contagem U20 1+ goals

84%

Contagem U20 2+ goals

55%

Contagem U20 3+ goals

28%

Futgol U20 1+ goals

82%

Futgol U20 2+ goals

51%

Futgol U20 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Contagem U20 (draw refunded)

53%

Futgol U20 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Contagem U20 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Futgol U20 away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Contagem U20 attack 1.69 + Futgol U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.84

Futgol U20 attack 1.73 + Contagem U20 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Contagem U20 scores more

42%

level

22%

Futgol U20 scores more

36%

Contagem U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Contagem U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff