Contagem U20 0–2 Cruzeiro U20: Result & Stats

Contagem U20

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Cruzeiro U20

Gabriel 35'

Unknown 25' (OG)

5/17/2025

Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Municipal de Ibirité

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Contagem U2031%

×Draw22%

Cruzeiro U2046%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Contagem U20Expected goals in this matchCruzeiro U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.89

Contagem U20

1.52

Cruzeiro U20

1.89

Cruzeiro U20 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 23 away

1.69

creates per match

2.09

1.69

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Contagem U20

1.69

Cruzeiro U20

2.09

allows per match

Contagem U20

1.69

Cruzeiro U20

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Contagem U20+0.00on par

Cruzeiro U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Contagem U20 ↓

Cruzeiro U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Contagem U20 or draw

54%

Contagem U20 or Cruzeiro U20

78%

Draw or Cruzeiro U20

69%

Winning margin

Contagem U20 wins by 2+

15%

Cruzeiro U20 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Contagem U20 1+ goals

78%

Contagem U20 2+ goals

45%

Contagem U20 3+ goals

20%

Cruzeiro U20 1+ goals

85%

Cruzeiro U20 2+ goals

56%

Cruzeiro U20 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Contagem U20 (draw refunded)

40%

Cruzeiro U20 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Contagem U20 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Cruzeiro U20 away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Contagem U20 attack 1.69 + Cruzeiro U20 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.52

Cruzeiro U20 attack 2.09 + Contagem U20 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Contagem U20 scores more

31%

level

22%

Cruzeiro U20 scores more

46%

Cruzeiro U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cruzeiro U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

Own goal

35'

Gabriel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff