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Contagem U20 vs Boston City U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Contagem U20
Contagem U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Boston City U20
Boston City U20
Unknown 62'
Unknown 87'
7/5/2025Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal de Ibirité

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Contagem U2044%
×Draw24%
Boston City U2032%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Contagem U20
1.69
Boston City U20
1.42

Contagem U20 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 22 away

creates per match

Contagem U20
1.69
Boston City U20
1.14

allows per match

Contagem U20
1.69
Boston City U20
1.68

finishing

Contagem U20+0.00on par
Boston City U20+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Contagem U20 ↓

Boston City U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Contagem U20 or draw
68%
Contagem U20 or Boston City U20
76%
Draw or Boston City U20
56%

Winning margin

Contagem U20 wins by 2+
23%
Boston City U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Contagem U20 1+ goals
82%
Contagem U20 2+ goals
50%
Contagem U20 3+ goals
24%
Boston City U20 1+ goals
76%
Boston City U20 2+ goals
41%
Boston City U20 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Contagem U20 (draw refunded)
58%
Boston City U20 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Contagem U20 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Boston City U20 away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Contagem U20 attack 1.69 + Boston City U20 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.69

Boston City U20 attack 1.14 + Contagem U20 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Contagem U20 scores more
44%
level
24%
Boston City U20 scores more
32%

Contagem U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Contagem U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'
87'
90+8'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Contagem U20 vs Boston City U20

Contagem U20 and Boston City U20 drew 1-1 in Mineiro U20 on July 5, 2025.

Goals: ? (62', 87').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Ibirité in Ibirité, Minas Gerais.