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Contagem U20 vs Atlético Mineiro U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Contagem U20
Contagem U20
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Atlético Mineiro U20
Atlético Mineiro U20
Unknown 62'
Joao Rafael 90'
David Kaua 76'
M. J. Iseppe 52' (pen), 16' (pen)
L. Louback 34'
Gustavo 32'
6/15/2024Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Municipal de Ibirité

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Contagem U2026%
×Draw21%
Atlético Mineiro U2053%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Contagem U20
1.41
Atlético Mineiro U20
2.09

Atlético Mineiro U20 creates 48% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 24 away

creates per match

Contagem U20
1.69
Atlético Mineiro U20
2.50

allows per match

Contagem U20
1.69
Atlético Mineiro U20
1.13

finishing

Contagem U20+0.00on par
Atlético Mineiro U20+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Contagem U20 ↓

Atlético Mineiro U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Contagem U20 or draw
47%
Contagem U20 or Atlético Mineiro U20
79%
Draw or Atlético Mineiro U20
74%

Winning margin

Contagem U20 wins by 2+
11%
Atlético Mineiro U20 wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Contagem U20 1+ goals
76%
Contagem U20 2+ goals
41%
Contagem U20 3+ goals
17%
Atlético Mineiro U20 1+ goals
88%
Atlético Mineiro U20 2+ goals
62%
Atlético Mineiro U20 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Contagem U20 (draw refunded)
33%
Atlético Mineiro U20 (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Contagem U20 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Atlético Mineiro U20 away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Contagem U20 attack 1.69 + Atlético Mineiro U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.41

Atlético Mineiro U20 attack 2.50 + Contagem U20 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Contagem U20 scores more
26%
level
21%
Atlético Mineiro U20 scores more
53%

Atlético Mineiro U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Atlético Mineiro U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
M. J. IseppePenalty
32'
Gustavo
34'
L. Louback
36'
52'
M. J. IseppePenalty
62'
76'
David Kaua
90'
Joao Rafael

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Contagem U20 vs Atlético Mineiro U20

Atlético Mineiro U20 beat Contagem U20 6-1 in Mineiro U20 on June 15, 2024.

Goals: M. J. Iseppe (16' pen, 52' pen), Gustavo (32'), L. Louback (34'), ? (62'), David Kaua (76'), Joao Rafael (90').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Ibirité in Ibirité, Minas Gerais.