Contagem U20 0–3 Athletic Club MG U20

Contagem U20

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Athletic Club MG U20

Unknown 85', 22', 19'

7/28/2025

Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Municipal de Ibirité

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Contagem U2033%

×Draw24%

Athletic Club MG U2043%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Contagem U20Expected goals in this matchAthletic Club MG U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.69

Contagem U20

1.46

Athletic Club MG U20

1.69

Athletic Club MG U20 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 23 away

1.69

creates per match

1.70

1.69

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Contagem U20

1.69

Athletic Club MG U20

1.70

allows per match

Contagem U20

1.69

Athletic Club MG U20

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Contagem U20+0.00on par

Athletic Club MG U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Contagem U20 ↓

Athletic Club MG U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Contagem U20 or draw

57%

Contagem U20 or Athletic Club MG U20

76%

Draw or Athletic Club MG U20

67%

Winning margin

Contagem U20 wins by 2+

15%

Athletic Club MG U20 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Contagem U20 1+ goals

77%

Contagem U20 2+ goals

43%

Contagem U20 3+ goals

18%

Athletic Club MG U20 1+ goals

82%

Athletic Club MG U20 2+ goals

50%

Athletic Club MG U20 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Contagem U20 (draw refunded)

44%

Athletic Club MG U20 (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Contagem U20 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Athletic Club MG U20 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Contagem U20 attack 1.69 + Athletic Club MG U20 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.46

Athletic Club MG U20 attack 1.70 + Contagem U20 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Contagem U20 scores more

33%

level

24%

Athletic Club MG U20 scores more

43%

Athletic Club MG U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Athletic Club MG U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

22'

85'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff