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Constructorul Leova vs Socol Copceac — Cupa 2020

Constructorul Leova
Constructorul Leova
FT
5 – 2
Socol Copceac
Socol Copceac
8/16/2023CupaCupa · Preliminary RoundStadionul Leova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Constructorul Leova94%
×Draw4%
Socol Copceac2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Constructorul Leova
5.33
Socol Copceac
0.83

Constructorul Leova creates 542% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Constructorul Leova
3.00
Socol Copceac
0.67

allows per match

Constructorul Leova
1.00
Socol Copceac
7.67

finishing

Constructorul Leova+0.00on par
Socol Copceac+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Constructorul Leova ↓

Socol Copceac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–11%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–13%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (10%) · grid covers 54% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
81%19%4.5
63%37%

Double chance

Constructorul Leova or draw
98%
Constructorul Leova or Socol Copceac
96%
Draw or Socol Copceac
6%

Winning margin

Constructorul Leova wins by 2+
85%
Socol Copceac wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Constructorul Leova 1+ goals
99%
Constructorul Leova 2+ goals
96%
Constructorul Leova 3+ goals
86%
Socol Copceac 1+ goals
56%
Socol Copceac 2+ goals
20%
Socol Copceac 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Constructorul Leova (draw refunded)
98%
Socol Copceac (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Constructorul Leova at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Socol Copceac away — creates 0.67, concedes 7.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Constructorul Leova attack 3.00 + Socol Copceac defence 7.67 → ÷2 → 5.33

Socol Copceac attack 0.67 + Constructorul Leova defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

Constructorul Leova scores more
94%
level
4%
Socol Copceac scores more
2%

Constructorul Leova at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "Constructorul Leova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Constructorul Leova vs Socol Copceac

Constructorul Leova beat Socol Copceac 5-2 in Cupa on August 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Leova in Leova.