Constructorul Leova 0–1 Gagauziya-Oguzsport

Constructorul Leova

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Gagauziya-Oguzsport

9/24/2024

Cupa · 1st RoundStadionul Leova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Constructorul Leova72%

×Draw16%

Gagauziya-Oguzsport12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Constructorul LeovaExpected goals in this matchGagauziya-Oguzsport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

1.00

Constructorul Leova

2.63

Gagauziya-Oguzsport

1.00

Constructorul Leova creates 163% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

3.00

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Constructorul Leova

3.00

Gagauziya-Oguzsport

1.00

allows per match

Constructorul Leova

1.00

Gagauziya-Oguzsport

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Constructorul Leova+0.00on par

Gagauziya-Oguzsport+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Constructorul Leova ↓

Gagauziya-Oguzsport →

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Constructorul Leova or draw

88%

Constructorul Leova or Gagauziya-Oguzsport

84%

Draw or Gagauziya-Oguzsport

28%

Winning margin

Constructorul Leova wins by 2+

50%

Gagauziya-Oguzsport wins by 2+

Team goals

Constructorul Leova 1+ goals

93%

Constructorul Leova 2+ goals

73%

Constructorul Leova 3+ goals

48%

Gagauziya-Oguzsport 1+ goals

63%

Gagauziya-Oguzsport 2+ goals

26%

Gagauziya-Oguzsport 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Constructorul Leova (draw refunded)

85%

Gagauziya-Oguzsport (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Constructorul Leova at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Gagauziya-Oguzsport away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Constructorul Leova attack 3.00 + Gagauziya-Oguzsport defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.63

Gagauziya-Oguzsport attack 1.00 + Constructorul Leova defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 72%?"

Constructorul Leova scores more

72%

level

16%

Gagauziya-Oguzsport scores more

12%

Constructorul Leova at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Constructorul Leova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff