Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Constància vs Serverense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Constància
Constància
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Serverense
Serverense
12/18/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 19Nou Camp de Inca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Constància64%
×Draw21%
Serverense15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Constància
1.90
Serverense
0.77

Constància creates 147% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 20 away

creates per match

Constància
1.66
Serverense
0.75

allows per match

Constància
0.78
Serverense
2.15

finishing

Constància+0.00on par
Serverense+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Constància ↓

Serverense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Constància or draw
85%
Constància or Serverense
79%
Draw or Serverense
36%

Winning margin

Constància wins by 2+
38%
Serverense wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Constància 1+ goals
85%
Constància 2+ goals
56%
Constància 3+ goals
29%
Serverense 1+ goals
54%
Serverense 2+ goals
18%
Serverense 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Constància (draw refunded)
82%
Serverense (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Constància at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.78 · 112 matches

Serverense away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Constància attack 1.66 + Serverense defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.90

Serverense attack 0.75 + Constància defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Constància scores more
64%
level
21%
Serverense scores more
15%

Constància at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Constància will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Constància vs Serverense

Constància beat Serverense 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on December 18, 2021.

The match was played at Nou Camp de Inca in Inca.