Constància 1–0 Santa Catalina Atlético

Constància

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Santa Catalina Atlético

9/7/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 3Nou Camp de Inca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Constància68%

×Draw20%

Santa Catalina Atlético12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ConstànciaExpected goals in this matchSanta Catalina Atlético

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.68

Constància

1.98

Santa Catalina Atlético

0.68

Constància creates 191% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 28 away

1.66

creates per match

0.57

0.78

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Constància

1.66

Santa Catalina Atlético

0.57

allows per match

Constància

0.78

Santa Catalina Atlético

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Constància+0.00on par

Santa Catalina Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Constància ↓

Santa Catalina Atlético →

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Constància or draw

88%

Constància or Santa Catalina Atlético

80%

Draw or Santa Catalina Atlético

32%

Winning margin

Constància wins by 2+

42%

Santa Catalina Atlético wins by 2+

Team goals

Constància 1+ goals

86%

Constància 2+ goals

59%

Constància 3+ goals

31%

Santa Catalina Atlético 1+ goals

49%

Santa Catalina Atlético 2+ goals

15%

Santa Catalina Atlético 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Constància (draw refunded)

85%

Santa Catalina Atlético (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Constància at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.78 · 112 matches

Santa Catalina Atlético away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Constància attack 1.66 + Santa Catalina Atlético defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.98

Santa Catalina Atlético attack 0.57 + Constància defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 68%?"

Constància scores more

68%

level

20%

Santa Catalina Atlético scores more

12%

Constància at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Constància will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Constància vs Santa Catalina Atlético

Constància beat Santa Catalina Atlético 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on September 7, 2019.

The match was played at Nou Camp de Inca in Inca.

Constància vs Santa Catalina Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Constància vs Santa Catalina Atlético