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Constància vs San Rafael — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Constància
Constància
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
San Rafael
San Rafael
2/6/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 28Nou Camp de Inca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Constància55%
×Draw25%
San Rafael20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Constància
1.59
San Rafael
0.86

Constància creates 85% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 47 away

creates per match

Constància
1.66
San Rafael
0.94

allows per match

Constància
0.78
San Rafael
1.53

finishing

Constància+0.00on par
San Rafael+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Constància ↓

San Rafael →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Constància or draw
80%
Constància or San Rafael
75%
Draw or San Rafael
45%

Winning margin

Constància wins by 2+
29%
San Rafael wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Constància 1+ goals
80%
Constància 2+ goals
47%
Constància 3+ goals
21%
San Rafael 1+ goals
58%
San Rafael 2+ goals
21%
San Rafael 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Constància (draw refunded)
73%
San Rafael (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Constància at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.78 · 112 matches

San Rafael away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Constància attack 1.66 + San Rafael defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.59

San Rafael attack 0.94 + Constància defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Constància scores more
55%
level
25%
San Rafael scores more
20%

Constància at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Constància will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Constància 1–0 San Rafael

Constància beat San Rafael 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on February 6, 2022.

The match was played at Nou Camp de Inca in Inca.