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Constància vs Manacor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Constància
Constància
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Manacor
Manacor
11/15/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 11Nou Camp de Inca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Constància45%
×Draw27%
Manacor28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Constància
1.42
Manacor
1.06

Constància creates 34% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 114 away

creates per match

Constància
1.66
Manacor
1.34

allows per match

Constància
0.78
Manacor
1.18

finishing

Constància+0.00on par
Manacor+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Constància ↓

Manacor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Constància or draw
72%
Constància or Manacor
73%
Draw or Manacor
55%

Winning margin

Constància wins by 2+
22%
Manacor wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Constància 1+ goals
76%
Constància 2+ goals
41%
Constància 3+ goals
17%
Manacor 1+ goals
65%
Manacor 2+ goals
29%
Manacor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Constància (draw refunded)
62%
Manacor (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Constància at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.78 · 112 matches

Manacor away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.18 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Constància attack 1.66 + Manacor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.42

Manacor attack 1.34 + Constància defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Constància scores more
45%
level
27%
Manacor scores more
28%

Constància at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Constància will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Constància vs Manacor

Manacor beat Constància 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on November 15, 2025.

The match was played at Nou Camp de Inca in Inca.