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Constància vs Inter Manacor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Constància
Constància
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Inter Manacor
Inter Manacor
11/20/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 10Nou Camp de Inca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Constància71%
×Draw19%
Inter Manacor11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Constància
2.13
Inter Manacor
0.69

Constància creates 209% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 32 away

creates per match

Constància
1.66
Inter Manacor
0.59

allows per match

Constància
0.78
Inter Manacor
2.59

finishing

Constància+0.00on par
Inter Manacor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Constància ↓

Inter Manacor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Constància or draw
89%
Constància or Inter Manacor
81%
Draw or Inter Manacor
29%

Winning margin

Constància wins by 2+
46%
Inter Manacor wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Constància 1+ goals
88%
Constància 2+ goals
63%
Constància 3+ goals
35%
Inter Manacor 1+ goals
50%
Inter Manacor 2+ goals
15%
Inter Manacor 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Constància (draw refunded)
87%
Inter Manacor (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Constància at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.78 · 112 matches

Inter Manacor away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.59 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Constància attack 1.66 + Inter Manacor defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.13

Inter Manacor attack 0.59 + Constància defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Constància scores more
71%
level
19%
Inter Manacor scores more
11%

Constància at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Constància will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Constància vs Inter Manacor

Constància beat Inter Manacor 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on November 20, 2022.

The match was played at Nou Camp de Inca in Inca.