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Constància vs Ferriolense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Constància
Constància
CANC
00:00
Ferriolense
Ferriolense
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 35Nou Camp de Inca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Constància58%
×Draw23%
Ferriolense19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Constància
1.81
Ferriolense
0.91

Constància creates 99% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 28 away

creates per match

Constància
1.66
Ferriolense
1.04

allows per match

Constància
0.78
Ferriolense
1.96

finishing

Constància+0.00on par
Ferriolense+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Constància ↓

Ferriolense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Constància or draw
81%
Constància or Ferriolense
77%
Draw or Ferriolense
42%

Winning margin

Constància wins by 2+
34%
Ferriolense wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Constància 1+ goals
84%
Constància 2+ goals
54%
Constància 3+ goals
27%
Ferriolense 1+ goals
60%
Ferriolense 2+ goals
23%
Ferriolense 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Constància (draw refunded)
76%
Ferriolense (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Constància at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.78 · 112 matches

Ferriolense away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.96 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Constància attack 1.66 + Ferriolense defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.81

Ferriolense attack 1.04 + Constància defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Constància scores more
58%
level
23%
Ferriolense scores more
19%

Constància at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Constància will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Constància vs Ferriolense — Match Preview

Constància face Ferriolense on April 26, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Constància host Ferriolense at Nou Camp de Inca.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.