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Constància vs Collerense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Constància
Constància
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Collerense
Collerense
3/23/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 26Nou Camp de Inca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Constància58%
×Draw23%
Collerense19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Constància
1.77
Collerense
0.89

Constància creates 99% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 113 away

creates per match

Constància
1.66
Collerense
1.00

allows per match

Constància
0.78
Collerense
1.88

finishing

Constància+0.00on par
Collerense+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Constància ↓

Collerense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Constància or draw
81%
Constància or Collerense
77%
Draw or Collerense
42%

Winning margin

Constància wins by 2+
33%
Collerense wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Constància 1+ goals
83%
Constància 2+ goals
53%
Constància 3+ goals
26%
Collerense 1+ goals
59%
Collerense 2+ goals
22%
Collerense 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Constància (draw refunded)
76%
Collerense (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Constància at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.78 · 112 matches

Collerense away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Constància attack 1.66 + Collerense defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.77

Collerense attack 1.00 + Constància defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Constància scores more
58%
level
23%
Collerense scores more
19%

Constància at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Constància will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Constància 2–1 Collerense

Constància beat Collerense 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Nou Camp de Inca in Inca.