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Constància vs Campos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Constància
Constància
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Campos
Campos
11/20/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 14Camp Municipal d'Esports de Campos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Constància63%
×Draw21%
Campos16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Constància
1.96
Campos
0.85

Constància creates 131% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 37 away

creates per match

Constància
1.66
Campos
0.92

allows per match

Constància
0.78
Campos
2.27

finishing

Constància+0.00on par
Campos+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Constància ↓

Campos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Constància or draw
84%
Constància or Campos
79%
Draw or Campos
37%

Winning margin

Constància wins by 2+
38%
Campos wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Constància 1+ goals
86%
Constància 2+ goals
58%
Constància 3+ goals
31%
Campos 1+ goals
57%
Campos 2+ goals
21%
Campos 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Constància (draw refunded)
80%
Campos (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Constància at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.78 · 112 matches

Campos away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Constància attack 1.66 + Campos defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.96

Campos attack 0.92 + Constància defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Constància scores more
63%
level
21%
Campos scores more
16%

Constància at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Constància will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Constància 1–1 Campos

Constància and Campos drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at Camp Municipal d'Esports de Campos in Mallorca.