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Constància vs Alaior — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Constància
Constància
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alaior
Alaior
4/27/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 31Nou Camp de Inca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Constància60%
×Draw23%
Alaior16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Constància
1.74
Alaior
0.77

Constància creates 126% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 17 away

creates per match

Constància
1.66
Alaior
0.76

allows per match

Constància
0.78
Alaior
1.82

finishing

Constància+0.00on par
Alaior+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Constància ↓

Alaior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Constància or draw
84%
Constància or Alaior
77%
Draw or Alaior
40%

Winning margin

Constància wins by 2+
34%
Alaior wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Constància 1+ goals
82%
Constància 2+ goals
52%
Constància 3+ goals
25%
Alaior 1+ goals
54%
Alaior 2+ goals
18%
Alaior 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Constància (draw refunded)
79%
Alaior (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Constància at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.78 · 112 matches

Alaior away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Constància attack 1.66 + Alaior defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.74

Alaior attack 0.76 + Constància defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Constància scores more
60%
level
23%
Alaior scores more
16%

Constància at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Constància will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Constància vs Alaior

Constància beat Alaior 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Nou Camp de Inca in Inca.