Consadole Sapporo 0–0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Consadole Sapporo

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

11/11/2023

J1 League · Round 32Sapporo Dome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

Consadole Sapporo35%

×Draw26%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Consadole SapporoExpected goals in this matchSanfrecce Hiroshima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.34

Consadole Sapporo

1.27

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 123 home / 151 away

1.49

creates per match

1.28

1.41

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Consadole Sapporo

1.49

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.28

allows per match

Consadole Sapporo

1.41

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Consadole Sapporo+0.00on par

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Consadole Sapporo ↓

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Consadole Sapporo or draw

62%

Consadole Sapporo or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

74%

Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

65%

Winning margin

Consadole Sapporo wins by 2+

15%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Consadole Sapporo 1+ goals

72%

Consadole Sapporo 2+ goals

36%

Consadole Sapporo 3+ goals

14%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals

74%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals

39%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Consadole Sapporo (draw refunded)

48%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Consadole Sapporo at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.41 · 123 matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.05 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Consadole Sapporo attack 1.49 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.28 + Consadole Sapporo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Consadole Sapporo scores more

35%

level

26%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more

38%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff