Consadole Sapporo 3–1 Renofa Yamaguchi

Consadole Sapporo

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Renofa Yamaguchi

Julinho 79'

Y. Uchimura 53'

K. Tokura 48'

Y. Shoji 82'

5/28/2016

J2 League · Round 15Sapporo Dome (Sapporo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Consadole Sapporo39%

×Draw27%

Renofa Yamaguchi35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Consadole SapporoExpected goals in this matchRenofa Yamaguchi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.24

Consadole Sapporo

1.33

Renofa Yamaguchi

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 41 away

1.45

creates per match

0.93

1.55

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Consadole Sapporo

1.45

Renofa Yamaguchi

0.93

allows per match

Consadole Sapporo

1.55

Renofa Yamaguchi

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Consadole Sapporo+0.00on par

Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Consadole Sapporo ↓

Renofa Yamaguchi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Consadole Sapporo or draw

65%

Consadole Sapporo or Renofa Yamaguchi

73%

Draw or Renofa Yamaguchi

61%

Winning margin

Consadole Sapporo wins by 2+

18%

Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Consadole Sapporo 1+ goals

74%

Consadole Sapporo 2+ goals

38%

Consadole Sapporo 3+ goals

15%

Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals

71%

Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals

35%

Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Consadole Sapporo (draw refunded)

53%

Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Consadole Sapporo at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Renofa Yamaguchi away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.22 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Consadole Sapporo attack 1.45 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.33

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 0.93 + Consadole Sapporo defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Consadole Sapporo scores more

39%

level

27%

Renofa Yamaguchi scores more

35%

Consadole Sapporo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Consadole Sapporo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

K. Tokura

53'

Y. Uchimura

59'

J. Inamoto← H. Miyazawa

68'

Y. Horigome← Y. Uchimura

76'

Y. Hoshi← Shin-Young Yoon

79'

Julinho

82'

Y. Shoji

84'

K. Kushibiki← Julinho

90'

T. Haraguchi← K. Kishida

Consadole

Renofa

1

Ichimori

22

▼

33

3

4

10

⚽

29

7

8

11

9

▼

25

18

24

35

19

10

▼

Miyazawa

23

Macedo

7

⚽

▼

Julinho

8

Fukai

13

⚽

▼

Uchimura

9

⚽

Tokura

59'▲J. Inamoto←▼H. Miyazawa

68'▲Y. Horigome←▼Y. Uchimura

84'▲K. Kushibiki←▼Julinho

Consadole Sapporo substitutes

17Inamoto31Horigome5Kushibiki1Kanayama4Kawai11Reis44Ono

76'▲Y. Hoshi←▼Shin-Young Yoon

90'▲T. Haraguchi←▼K. Kishida

Renofa Yamaguchi substitutes

19Hoshi18Haraguchi2Miyagi17Kato21Hiroki30Murakami39Hirabayashi