Consadole Sapporo 5–1 FC Tokyo: Result & Stats

Consadole Sapporo

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

FC Tokyo

5/6/2023

J1 League · Round 12Sapporo Dome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

Consadole Sapporo39%

×Draw26%

FC Tokyo35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Consadole SapporoExpected goals in this matchFC Tokyo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.28

Consadole Sapporo

1.38

FC Tokyo

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 123 home / 149 away

1.49

creates per match

1.15

1.41

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Consadole Sapporo

1.49

FC Tokyo

1.15

allows per match

Consadole Sapporo

1.41

FC Tokyo

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Consadole Sapporo+0.00on par

FC Tokyo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Consadole Sapporo ↓

FC Tokyo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Consadole Sapporo or draw

65%

Consadole Sapporo or FC Tokyo

74%

Draw or FC Tokyo

61%

Winning margin

Consadole Sapporo wins by 2+

18%

FC Tokyo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Consadole Sapporo 1+ goals

75%

Consadole Sapporo 2+ goals

40%

Consadole Sapporo 3+ goals

16%

FC Tokyo 1+ goals

72%

FC Tokyo 2+ goals

37%

FC Tokyo 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Consadole Sapporo (draw refunded)

53%

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Consadole Sapporo at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.41 · 123 matches

FC Tokyo away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.27 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Consadole Sapporo attack 1.49 + FC Tokyo defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.38

FC Tokyo attack 1.15 + Consadole Sapporo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Consadole Sapporo scores more

39%

level

26%

FC Tokyo scores more

35%

Consadole Sapporo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Consadole Sapporo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff